🌻另一個Zoom會議(第二次貼......有補上一些內容)
繼上次的年報導讀會議後, 讓我們再做另一個會議! 這次很榮幸邀請到一位對估值很有見解的股友前輩來帶大家了解估值(恩, 這次我會是主持人, 不是主講人).
主題: 估值(valuation)分享會(Cat: 這不算基礎的估值會議)
主講人: 小揚(from安泰價值投資)
https://www.facebook.com/antaiinvestment (此為小揚的粉絲頁)
參與者: 具基本估值能力. 若打算參加者, 請事先跟我(請私訊)提出一個關於估值的case study, 到時候可在會議中分享(最好是以投影片形式呈現, 這樣到時候好跟大家分享). 若有估值的問題, 也可以提出.
Case study可以是美股, 也可以是台股.
時間: 台灣時間07/10 (周六)晚間9點.
預計一個小時(不會像上次那樣冗長了😅): 前30分鐘由小揚做分享, 後30分鐘大家分享估值案例&提問
進行方式: 以Zoom進行(之後會私訊會議資訊給參與者)
🌻Morgan Stanley Mid-year Investor Outlook: A tricky transition
https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/midyear-2021-global-markets-outlook
🌻在您投資生涯中, 有沒有一些觀念讓您受用很多?
下面這位投資名人的好觀念影響我很深. 他的意思是, 一般投資人, 只要能説出三個買一家公司的理由, 就很夠了. 這也迫使我, 每次在買股票時, 問自己對這家公司的了解有多少. 也會去衡量公司的優點與缺點在哪裡.
"It is vital (重要的) that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks."
全文在此:
Jim Cramer: In Times Like This, Go for the Easy Money
Look at the stocks you own. Can you tell me why you've got them? If you can't answer the following three questions, then have a look at several I like right now.
We've endured the meme stock craziness, with all of its love for heavily shorted stocks. We have watched the collapse of bitcoin to levels viewed as shocking, even if they are still more than double where they were not that long ago. We've dealt with Fed officials making it clear that they are no longer on the side of the bulls or the bears. They are on the side of job growth, but are wary of inflation. We've seen the end of the rush to get vaccines, which means that millions of people are going to get the new COVID variant, because there is no natural immunity to it. We've watched as the hopes for an infrastructure bill have collapsed. We've endured shortages of everything from chips to plastic to imported goods and labor.
And we're still standing, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Yep, we are in one of those halcyon moments, where the masks are off -- even if they shouldn't be -- and Americans are back doing what they do best: consume, spend, go out to eat and then consume and spend some more.
There are times in the stock market where the collective mindset is revealed. This is one of those times: Things are cool, it's not a big moment, there's no real news for a bit, it's the historically strong period and we can reach some conclusions about where we are.
When things are like this, it is important to remember that buyers like to revert to tried-and-true companies that thrive no matter what. These are companies that have an edge and are better at what they do than other companies.
You know that I am a great believer in index funds, that the average person doesn't have the time or the inclination to research individual stocks. It's a difficult barrier. I think you need to make time to read the quarterly report and listen to the conference call, to Google articles and, if possible, get some research about the companies you own. It is vital that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks. I am reminded by this, because, once again, without a mask, I can be recognized and if I am not holding "Nvidia the Second," I can carry on a conversation.
I have had many in the last two weeks and when I have asked this litany of questions, I find myself at a loss as to why almost no one knew what they owned. But they thirsted for individual stocks, because they, like me, think things are better post pandemic. No, that's not a facetious comment. Many, many stocks did better with a stay-at-home economy. A huge number.
So what do I do? I revert to what others do when you are stumped about how to stay in touch with stocks, but want to do less homework. That means buying stocks that are accessible, not stocks like Unity (U) or Snowflake (SNOW) or Twilio (TWLO) or Okta (OKTA) .
I revert to normal businesses people know and I suggest they Google some articles, peruse the conference call, but, above all, like the company's products so you can buy more if it goes down.
Here's some that I have been telling people I like:
First is Ford (F) . I think the Ford lineup is amazing. The electric F-150 series will be incredible. I am eager to get a Maverick for my family, because it is a smaller pickup that will get the job done for the myriad little things I need to do with this farm I bought from that crazy bitcoin foray. I like the competitive edge of the CEO, who says he is going to bury Elon Musk when the Lightning comes out. I even think the Bronco is cool as all get out. Most important, though? I think the chip shortage is ending. My semiconductor friends are telling me the foundries are producing more feature-rich chips and that means Ford can pump out the trucks small business people love and need. Plus, the used car prices at last have plateaued, according to their most important pricing index. Halcyon times.
Second, Costco (COST) : The samples are coming back. Tell me you don't love the samples. You need things in bulk. You want low prices. You want to get all of the things that people don't think of with Costco, like insurance, hearing-aids -- hey, they are a fortune -- jewelry, things around the house. You go and you will buy far more than you first came for. My kind of store.
The kids love this American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) , which we just bought for my charitable trust, which you can follow along by joining the Action Alerts PLUS club. Jay Schottenstein, the CEO, came on "Mad Money" recently and it's clear that his Aerie model has real staying power: 26 consecutive quarters of double digit growth. No flash in the pan, that one. Number one brand in jeans for the 15 to 25 year old group. The best in the mall. How did I know this? I see the credit card bills.
I got up this morning to do my physical therapy. I have been doing it ever since I hurt my back in February. I have this really cool pair of sneakers that fit me perfectly and I love them, but I am fortunate enough to have a vacation house and I am always taking those shoes with me.
So I went on Amazon (AMZN) this morning and lo and behold I saw them for half price. I bought two pairs. Then I went over everything I have bought in the last year and got a bunch of those things. Then I bought a pair of binoculars, because mine were stolen. I paid half price.
Yep, Amazon's universal. I was talking to Alexa, while I was ordering, getting some new music on, asking questions. I saw that despite all of the Sturm und Drang of Amazon being late with things, all the delivery dates were within range. I didn't click on any ads, and I didn't need the speed of Web Services, but the whole thing reminded me about how special the darned company is. I don't care if it's ahead or behind plan for the moment. I would just buy some more when it goes down.
Finally, Apple (AAPL) . I think people who don't own Apple should look what they are holding at this very moment. Yes, right now. Or look at what's in your lap or on the table besides your fork. And then think about the bill you paid last night without knowing it. Think about what you bought in the App store yesterday. Think about what would happen if it would break or get stolen or, left in the Uber (UBER) , or heaven forbid, be dropped into the pool or in the, yes, toilet.
There, that's what you buy in halcyon times. Stocks of companies you know that if they go lower, because things get less halcyon, you are fine with it and buy more. If things go up, believe me, you will participate.
So accept the moment. Don't try for the hard money. Go for the easy kind. That's the best kind.
https://realmoney.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/jim-cramer--15692051
Picture: 牡丹(peony)花開. 恨不得院子裡有一塊地是牡丹園.
同時也有1部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過5,140的網紅寶博士,也在其Youtube影片中提到,錄音時間 2020.04.29 📍地表最強駭客-影片版 https://youtu.be/pimbl4JwswY 📍比特幣減半倒數 https://www.binance.vision/zt/halving 📍比特幣一夜飆漲 13% https://blockcast.it/2020/04/30/b...
「bitcoin up台灣」的推薦目錄:
- 關於bitcoin up台灣 在 貓的成長美股異想世界 Facebook 的精選貼文
- 關於bitcoin up台灣 在 貓的成長美股異想世界 Facebook 的最讚貼文
- 關於bitcoin up台灣 在 貓的成長美股異想世界 Facebook 的最讚貼文
- 關於bitcoin up台灣 在 寶博士 Youtube 的精選貼文
- 關於bitcoin up台灣 在 Bitcoin 比特幣中文社團 - Facebook 的評價
- 關於bitcoin up台灣 在 虛擬貨幣 - Dcard 的評價
- 關於bitcoin up台灣 在 台灣『bitcoin 胡志明娛樂平台網址☀️✔️K8662 ... - 愛食記 的評價
- 關於bitcoin up台灣 在 運動情報網紅推薦指南- bitcoin up dcard的分享 的評價
bitcoin up台灣 在 貓的成長美股異想世界 Facebook 的最讚貼文
台灣疫情嚴重了起來, 讓我想起了去年那段不堪回首的日子.....
祝大家&家人平安健康. 這些都會過去的. 大家也一定可以挺過去的!
一位股友分享給我的YouTuber影片, 看了挺舒心. 與大家分享, 希望可以紓解疫情所帶來的壓力:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxEyrf1Ud59fvH9A5mNGwIg
🌻本周做的功課與閱讀
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/05/blog-post_27.html
🌻WSJ專欄作者根據"快思曼想"作者的新書, 從投資的角度切入, 寫了一篇文章. 挺值得一看:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-you-shouldnt-buy-bitcoin-when-youre-hungry-11621609196
(網路版的標題下的不好.......紙版的標題是"A Psychologist's Prescription For Disciplined Investing)
"When I ask Prof. Kahneman if the opposite of noise is quiet, he says no: “The opposite of noise is discipline(紀律). It’s just doing things in a reasoned (合理的) way, organizing your thinking so it is as intentional (故意的, 帶有意圖的) as possible.”
🌻Goods vs. service?
Reopening後, 服務的業績會比實體商品(goods)好嗎? 華爾街日報的專欄作者說, 這一直是個debate:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/grand-reopening-to-test-consumers-appetite-to-keep-spending-11621778580
🌻記錄歷史
被視為華爾街領頭羊的道瓊工業指數,在1896年5月26日首日交易,當時收盤指數只有40.96點,如今邁入125周年,其收盤指數已飛越到34,000點以上。至於成分股也從最開始的傳統製造業擴增到金融、科技業。
https://ctee.com.tw/news/global/465985.html
🌻關於SPAC
“根據佛羅里達金融學教授加恩(Minmo Gahng)和里特(Jay Ritter)編制的數據,截至今年5月17日收盤,2020年初到今年4月期間完成SPAC交易的44家科技初創企業上市後股價平均下跌了12.6%,其中超過半數的科技股跌幅更超過20%。”
“矽谷銀行(Silicon Valley Bank)的一份報告顯示,在2020年通過SPAC合併完成上市的企業中,約 50%尚未達到營收預期,42%在上市的第一年還出現了營收下滑。”
“加恩和里特表示,通過傳統首次公開募股上市的企業的狀況也出現了下降,但跌幅相對相對:同時進行首次公開募股的77家科技企業的合併較早上市首日收盤時下跌了10.7%。”
http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202105271939161083.html
原文: https://www.wsj.com/articles/for-startup-leaders-spacs-have-lost-their-allure-11621774800
🌻美國reopening, 哪些產品賣得好? 體香劑, 牙齒潔白劑, and保險套!
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-great-american-clean-up-deodorant-teeth-whitener-fly-off-the-shelves-11621869232
🌻拜登追查新冠起源 臉書:不再刪新冠病毒人造相關訊息
https://www.worldjournal.com/wj/story/121468/5490355
Picture: Lily of the valley (山谷鈴蘭)
bitcoin up台灣 在 貓的成長美股異想世界 Facebook 的最讚貼文
🌻高速成長股的跌幅
這幾年, 越來越多人投資成長股, 尤其是高速成長股, 是一件很好的事情. 但很多投資人應該只看到高速成長股帶來的漲幅, 卻沒看到另一面.
一位分析師做的研究: 除了dot.com那時候的大跌, 其他時候, 高速成長軟體股的跌幅平均是25-27%.
下圖是截至05/17的跌幅(未包括SPAC). 是-37%.
成長股很受到投資人的青睞, 也很容易變成動能股. 當動能失去的時候, 就像重力加速度一樣, 跌速跟跌幅會很快很大.
投資成長股, 尤其是高速成長股, 對我來說, 要不就是佛系, 要不就是練盤感&操作. 可以看適合自己的方法&投資的目標是甚麼(而其實成長股經過去年的大漲幅, 大跌前的估值也已經很高了).
一位財富已自由的財經名嘴的名言:
"Discipline trumps conviction." (紀律勝過信念)
可以跟這句放在一起看:
"I learned that you may be right, but if enough people believe you're wrong the markets can really hurt you." --BlackRock bond chief Rick Rieder
至於成長股還能不能買呢? 可以參考下面這兩段:
While tech stocks have taken the biggest hit from rising inflation concerns, some investors see the recent retreat as an opportunity to buy fast-growing companies.
“Within tech, there are still some companies that look very cheap,” said Jane Shoemake, client portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors. “If you believe in the longer-term trends supporting these companies, you should be buying.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stock-markets-dow-update-05-18-2021-11621323328
🌻FTCH, FVRR, PINS, PYPL, ROKU電話會議內容已整理好. 可到部落格那邊去看: https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/
之前先錄了一段影片, 解釋我是怎麼做財報內容&電話會議內容整理的: https://youtu.be/vvkrs6CiWdw
🎯上次有提, 九月份會來做年報財報的導讀. 現在台灣的疫情那麼嚴重, 我有考慮在這個周末來進行, 這樣有興趣的讀者可以利用宅在家的時間來學習. Anyway. 如果決定提早做的話, 我週四會將訊息貼在這邊.
🌻關於市場
Markets are likely to be volatile until additional economic data provides a clearer picture, said Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Advisors. “I don’t think we could know anything really about which way inflation is going to go until September, but the market is unable to wait that long.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stock-markets-dow-update-05-20-2021-11621496568
🌻關於cryptocurrency
“[Cryptocurrency] is no longer an asterisk for the general market,” Ms. Krosby said. “It seems like it’s becoming very much part of the general market, and questions whether or not the selloff in bitcoin is representative of concerns over risk-on risk-off over the larger market.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stock-markets-dow-update-05-20-2021-11621496568
🌻營運分析: 如何看一家公司在疫情後有沒有失去競爭力?
The bounceback was largely to be expected after a dismal comparable quarter last year, when stores had to close due to Covid-19 restrictions. A comparison to pre-pandemic numbers yields a more sober outlook: Measured against the same quarter in 2019, Kohl’s net sales declined 4.2%, while comparable sales at Macy’s fell 10.5%.
One positive surprise was a turn to profitability for the two department store giants; analysts polled by FactSet had expected a net loss from both. But that was partly thanks to factors outside of the retailers’ control: Port congestion has led to less inventory across the apparel industry, leading to more full-priced selling. Inventory declined 25% at Kohl’s compared with a year earlier and fell 14% at Macy’s.
Kohl’s shares fell 10% after it reported Thursday, and Macy’s is down around 5% since reporting earlier in the week. Yet they are both trading at prices higher than pre-pandemic levels.
That seems hard to justify. The truth is that department stores were losing customers before and during the pandemic, and will probably continue to do so after it. While Kohl’s and Macy’s sales remain below pre-pandemic levels, off-price and big-box retailers have seen their apparel sales increase. At TJX’s Marmaxx division, which houses T.J. Maxx and Marshalls, sales in the quarter ended May 1 were up 14.4% compared with the same period in 2019. Target’s apparel sales grew 29% over the comparable period.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/return-to-normal-not-good-enough-for-department-stores-11621530127
🌻通膨. The magic number 4.
Mackintosh 表示,經濟復甦提高通膨也有利股市,聯準會 (Fed) 在這個階段也很樂意忽略通膨,因為經濟成長正是政府想要的。但當通膨進一步上升,壓縮到股票報酬率時, 4% 通膨率將成為關鍵點。
據統計自 1957 年標普 500 指數創立以來,美國曾有 9 次通膨率高於 4%,這其中的 8 次,股市在 3 個月後下跌。只有 2005 年突破 4% 又隨即回落,因而未影響大盤。
https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/4647748
WSJ原文在此:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflations-magic-number-is-four-11621355006
🌻附上本周發表財報的公司一覽表(在下方留言處)
🌻專門介紹美國豪宅的YouTuber。宅在家沒事可以欣賞一下。
https://m.youtube.com/user/enesyilmazer
Pictures: from earningswhispers.com; It's always a pleasant surprise when animal friends visited. This time, three in a low.
一次有三隻鹿來拜訪.
影片: https://youtu.be/TxLTGe9IdWA
bitcoin up台灣 在 寶博士 Youtube 的精選貼文
錄音時間 2020.04.29
📍地表最強駭客-影片版 https://youtu.be/pimbl4JwswY
📍比特幣減半倒數 https://www.binance.vision/zt/halving
📍比特幣一夜飆漲 13% https://blockcast.it/2020/04/30/bitcoin-rocketed-up-near-9k-usd/
📍比特幣減半 &礦機 https://blockcast.it/2020/04/30/bitcoin-rocketed-up-near-9k-usd/
📍台灣央行將推出「數位新台幣CBDC」 https://www.blocktempo.com/taiwan-central-bank-will-release-the-cbdc-report-before-july/
🔆搭配服用:
Bonus | 疫情延燒,資產配置大考驗!【比特幣or黃金】
https://youtu.be/A7ZOY4q8xE0
⭐葛如鈞(寶博士)
Facebook▶️https://www.facebook.com/dAAAb
YouTube▶️https://youtube.com/c/dAAAb
- - - - - -- - - - - -
📣訂閱SoundOn
APP▶️http://www.soundon.fm/download
Facebook⏩https://reurl.cc/1QxXzQ
官網▶️https://www.soundon.fm
Instagram▶️ https://reurl.cc/XX6Z3j
- - - - - -- - - - - -
🎵片頭:Music from https://icons8.com/music/author/savvier
Fame Inc by SAVVIER
🎵插曲:Music from https://icons8.com/music/author/marco-lazovic EARLY MORNING by MARCO LAZOVIC
🎵片尾:Music from https://icons8.com/music/author/NORDGROOVE Happy Step by NORDGROOVE
- - - - - -- - - - - -
主持:北科大互動設計系 專任助理教授 葛如鈞/寶博士
感謝:北科大創新思考與區塊鏈應用社群計畫補助|北科大互動設計系 https://ixd.ntut.edu.tw |北科大創新創業情報站 https://fb.com/ntuticorner
bitcoin up台灣 在 虛擬貨幣 - Dcard 的必吃
自己接觸加密貨幣也算有一段時間了,買過幾千元比特幣、幾百元以太幣,這次看到最近很紅的Move to ... YouTuber紛紛下架影片道歉,T-SET台灣最大型虛擬貨幣投資詐騙! ... <看更多>
bitcoin up台灣 在 台灣『bitcoin 胡志明娛樂平台網址☀️✔️K8662 ... - 愛食記 的必吃
台灣bitcoin 胡志明娛樂平台網址☀️✔️K8662.com✔️Sign Up Bonus 5$▟bitcoin 胡志明娛樂平台網址zfh7fbitcoin 胡志明娛樂平台網址zfh7f推薦,台灣bitcoin 胡志明 ... ... <看更多>
bitcoin up台灣 在 Bitcoin 比特幣中文社團 - Facebook 的必吃
Taiwan Bitcoin 社團一起討論、一起研究只要跟Bitcoin數位貨幣沾上邊的都可以在這邊跟大家分享,OP有人之前分享過也無所謂。會讓人想再分享表示有它的價值及重要性。 ... <看更多>